On July 9, Iran test-fired a missile (TV photo). Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards successfully test-fired an improved Meteor-3 medium-range ballistic missile on the same day, which can cover all of Israel and US military bases in the Middle East, Iranian state television reported on the 9th. In addition, the Revolutionary Guard also tested several missiles with different ranges. Xinhua News Agency/Reuters

　　According to the British "Sunday Times" report, a senior Pentagon official said that President Bush had told the Israeli government that if the negotiations with Iran broke down, he might approve Israel’s plan to take military action against Iran’s nuclear facilities.

　　The American official told The Sunday Times that although American generals opposed the plan of using force and people widely doubted whether the United States was ready to deal with the military, political and economic risks caused by air strikes against Iran, Bush had turned on a "yellow light" for Israel’s plan of air strikes against Iran’s nuclear facilities. He said that the "yellow light" means that Israel can continue its preparations, be ready to launch a strike against Iran’s nuclear facilities at any time, and inform the US after the preparations are completed. However, Bush has told the Israelis that the US military will not provide them with help, nor can they use the US military base in Iraq for logistical support.

　　Whether Bush’s "yellow light" can be turned into a "green light" is still uncertain, because Iran has demonstrated undeniable lethal strike capability. Washington believes that Iran’s medium-range ballistic missile test last week was provocative and an unwise decision, but both the Pentagon and the CIA believe that Iran’s missile test does not mean that Israel or American targets are facing Iran.

　　The threat of ciliary. Pentagon officials said: "It really depends on the Israelis. It has been decided that the United States will not attack Iran, but the president is really worried about the nuclear threat against Israel. I know that he believes that only force can deter Iran. So far, Israel has not provided Bush with a convincing military proposal. If there is no convincing military plan, the yellow light will never turn green. "

　　Some Pentagon officials are also resistant to Israel’s military action plan, and they are worried about Iran’s retaliatory measures. The official said: "Pentagon military personnel oppose Israel’s plan to attack Iraq mainly because they think it will endanger our troops in Iraq and Afghanistan." One factor that complicates the consideration of the US and Israeli governments is the possibility of the US Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama becoming president. He has made it clear that he prefers negotiation to the use of force. Obama’s opposition to the Iraq war and his doubts about the urgency of Iran’s nuclear threat have further increased the pressure on Israeli hawks to take military action before the US election in November. Pentagon officials said, "If I were Israeli, I wouldn’t wait."

　　All sides believe that attacks by Iran or Israel will trigger a round of disastrous retaliation, which will shake the global oil market greatly, make the oil price soar and undermine the US military efforts in Iraq. Badri, Secretary General of OPEC, said last week that a military conflict involving Iran would lead to a sharp rise in oil prices, because OPEC would not be able to fill Iran’s oil production or overcome the shipping restrictions in the Strait of Hormuz. Iran is OPEC’s second largest oil producer after Saudi Arabia. Bush is also worried about the impact of military operations on the US Iraq war and US actions in the wider Middle East. The surge of American troops in the past few months has improved the situation in Iraq. A senior Iranian official said on the 12th that Iran would destroy 32 Israeli and American military bases in the Middle East as a counterattack against military strikes.

　　But American officials also admit that if Israel is threatened, the president of the United States will not be idle. The authenticity of Iran’s threat was the subject of heated debate last week. Some analysts said that Iran may have nuclear weapons before next spring, but others believed that Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad was playing a dangerous bluff game, with the aim of influencing domestic public opinion. Kynett Katzman, a former CIA analyst, said, "I don’t think Iran is capable of causing catastrophic damage to anyone. The Iranian Revolutionary Guards are not strong militarily, and their equipment is not accurate. The missile test is more like a bluff of’ there are dogs here’. They want everyone to think that if you find trouble with them, you will be bitten by a dog. " A former aide of Rice pointed out that Ahmadinejad’s conflict style has made him face a strong opponent in Iran’s religious leadership. Professor Feldman, head of Middle East studies at brandes University, said that the Iranian government is under pressure due to the global economic slowdown. He said: "Ahmadinejad’s failed policy has made Iran more vulnerable to sanctions, and people close to the clergy have considered him a burden." In Israel, Prime Minister Olmert also faces domestic problems, and he is facing a corruption investigation. It is widely rumored in Israeli media that he may order an attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities to distract domestic attention. A close friend of his said that Olmert told him that people would see a completely different Middle East in three months.

　　However, even the toughest officials admit that Israel will face the most challenging military task since its establishment. Pentagon officials said: "Everyone here thinks that Israel’s military action will only delay Iran’s nuclear program. Only when Israel’s military action delays Iran’s nuclear program for five years will Israel’s military action be considered successful." If Israel acts alone, Israel’s strength may not be able to do this. Iran has scattered other equipment of its nuclear program into underground bunkers all over the country, and neither American nor Israeli intelligence is sure whether they have all the information about Iran’s nuclear program. Katzman said: "It may happen that the Israelis will attack first and we will finish it. Or they have always thought that only the United States has the strength to permanently suppress Iran’s nuclear program. " (China Network, July 13 th, Huang Huan)

Editor: Zhang Renhe

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